It is a long-winded manner of claiming the market is rarely “improper.” It merely displays all obtainable info. If you happen to appropriately disagree with the market, you could be rewarded for that perception, by betting your self. U.S. customers have alternate options to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them underneath a regulatory settlement. If you happen to imagine the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the worth of the Trump contract, and b) is improper, you’ll be able to merely guess towards her or him or them by going lengthy on Harris. Despite the fact that it’s not risk-free – Harris nonetheless must win to your guess to repay – should you thought her “actual” odds had been 55%, you’d be shopping for one thing value 55 cents for 40 cents right now. Even should you may not be keen to do this, different market individuals will. So if the Polymarket whale is certainly misinformed, now that we all know there’s a (probably misinformed) whale, you’d anticipate the percentages to say no as merchants incorporate this new info. Except after all, the prediction markets are typically dependable and the whale hasn’t influenced them a lot.
