Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen believes there’s a 50% probability that spot Ethereum ETFs will acquire approval within the coming months.
Rasmussen shared his insights on the chances throughout a Feb. 26 interview with Yahoo Finance. He stated:
“I definitely don’t know if the market is essentially at a degree that the SEC want to see so as to approve these spot [Ethereum] ETFs this Might. I feel it’s a couple of 50/50 % probability that we’ll see approval or we’ll see rejection and kick it out to a different … spherical of functions sooner or later.”
Different sources, together with Bitwise World Head of Analysis Matt Hougan, beforehand predicted near 50% odds that spot ETH ETFs will acquire approval in Might. In the meantime, the chances for approval are barely decrease on the Polymarket web site at 41%.
The SEC has to resolve on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF utility by the Might 23 deadline and is anticipated to resolve on the opposite functions concurrently because it did with the spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Rasmussen additionally mentioned that the US SEC didn’t approve Bitcoin ETFs till Grayscale initiated a lawsuit regarding dismissing its utility. He added that it’s unsure whether or not an analogous lawsuit could be obligatory for ETH ETFs.
Moreover, it’s unclear whether or not any applicant may file a lawsuit at this stage of the method.
Bitwise believes ETFs will drive costs upward
Bitwise doesn’t presently have a pending spot Ethereum ETF utility however was considered one of a number of candidates that gained approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in January.
Rasmussen famous that Bitwise is “tremendously pleased” with the success of Bitcoin ETFs. He stated that the agency has seen $1 billion in belongings stream into its personal Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and that the ETFs have collectively seen greater than $15 billion in asset stream.
Rasmussen additionally predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs and different funds will drive up crypto costs as beforehand “sidelined” institutional traders purchase in. He stated:
“When we now have that type of demand shock coming into the market, I feel it’s no shock that we’ve seen the value of Bitcoin rise … I feel it is going to be the identical for Ethereum or different belongings if there have been different ETFs to come back to markets.”
Rasmussen additionally described different occasions impacting the crypto market, together with Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun improve, NFT buying and selling volumes, and Solana’s worth progress.
He advised that crypto is “rising from the ashes” of the weak 2022 market and is coming into a multi-year bull cycle. Rasmussen concluded by restating Bitwise’s earlier worth predictions and stated that the flagship crypto remains to be on observe to succeed in a brand new all-time excessive of at the very least $88,000 by the tip of 2024.
