Charge cuts probably off the desk for 2023

by Jeremy

Fast Take

  • The fed funds price now implies that price cuts are off the desk for 2023 and are anticipated to stay greater for an extended timeframe within the yr.
  • Because the yr progresses, price hikes are anticipated to proceed, whereas charges are anticipated to carry regular within the second half of 2023.
  • A strong enchancment in yesterday’s U.S. PMIs bolstered the necessity for additional coverage tightening, notably with inflation slowing lower than anticipated within the U.S.
  • The S&P composite PMI jumped out of contraction on an absolute foundation, exhibiting vital enchancment.
Fed Funds Rate Probability: (Source: CME Fed Watch Tool)
Fed Funds Charge Likelihood: (Supply: CME Fed Watch Instrument)
S&P Global Composite: (Source: Macroscope)
S&P International Composite: (Supply: Macroscope)

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