Fast Take
Latest knowledge evaluation paints a precarious image for the European financial system. Q3 2023 GDP figures illustrate a contraction of -0.1%, defying the forecast for a flat price. This downturn marks a vital second for the European financial system, as one other subsequent destructive quarter might formally wedge Europe right into a recessionary interval.
This financial backdrop is additional nuanced by the inflation figures. The headline inflation price for Europe was decrease than the projected 3.1%, registering at 2.9% yr over yr. Regardless of this dip, core inflation remained regular at 4.2% yr over yr, matching consensus expectations. Regardless of declining headline inflation, the core inflation price remained at 4.2% yearly. Nevertheless, it’s value noting that this determine is double the everyday inflation goal set by central banks.
These knowledge, taken collectively, counsel a collection of economic challenges going through the European financial system. GDP contraction coupled with a dip in headline inflation, but regular core inflation, might probably sign an financial imbalance that wants addressing.
The approaching query is whether or not Europe can stave off one other destructive quarter and successfully skirt a recession. The interaction between GDP and inflation figures will undoubtedly be a key watchpoint within the ensuing quarters.
| EU GDP and Inflation knowledge | Precise | Earlier | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Progress Price QoQ Flash Q3 | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0% |
| GDP Progress Price YoY Flash Q3 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Inflation Price YoY Flash, October | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% |
| Core Inflation Price YoY Flash, October | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| Inflation Price MoM Flash, October | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| CPI Flash, October | 124.55 | 124.4 | – |
EU GDP and inflation knowledge: (Supply: Buying and selling Economics)
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