Did this Coin Metrics analyst uncover the important thing to the entire Alameda/ FTX story? As a result of let’s face it, it doesn’t make sense. Each of Sam Bankman-Fried’s companies have been extraordinarily worthwhile. FTX was the world’s third-biggest alternate and rising, why would anybody danger killing that golden goose? There should have been an underlying trigger. Did this Coin Metrics analyst uncover it within the on-chain knowledge? He might need.
The Head of R&D at Coin Metrics, Lucas Nuzzi, ends his thread with a warning: “Essential to notice that that is my very own private highly-speculative tackle what occurred based mostly on these on-chain artifacts.” The case the Coin Metrics analyst is making rests on stable on-chain knowledge, however the interpretation of what stated knowledge means is “highly-speculative.” So, take it with a grain of salt and don’t go round saying that is precisely what occurred, as a result of it won’t be.
That being stated, yikes!
The Coin Metrics Analyst Makes The Case
Lucas Nuzzi begins with an announcement of truth, “I discovered proof that FTX might need supplied a large bailout for Alameda in Q2 which now got here again to hang-out them.” After which, he poses a thriller. “40 days in the past, 173 million FTT tokens value over 4B USD turned lively on-chain.” The place did these tokens go? You guessed it, Alameda Analysis. The day was September twenty eighth. A record-breaking $8.6B in FTT moved that day.
2/ That day, September 28, over 8.6 Billion USD value of FTT was moved on-chain.
That was by far the most important day by day transfer of FTT within the token’s existence and one of many largest ERC20 day by day strikes we ever recorded at Coin Metrics. pic.twitter.com/GnUO1ZcCB7
— Lucas Nuzzi (@LucasNuzzi) November 8, 2022
“That was by far the most important day by day transfer of FTT within the token’s existence and one of many largest ERC20 day by day strikes we ever recorded at Coin Metrics,” Nuzzi tweeted. What was taking place round Alameda and FTX close to that point? Nothing particular, actually.
- On August twenty fourth, Sam Trabucco stepped down from the Co-CEO place at Alameda Analysis. “I’ll keep on as an advisor, however in any other case is not going to proceed to have a powerful day-to-day presence on the firm,” Trabucco tweeted.
- On September twenty seventh, Brett Harrison stepped down from the CEO place at FTX. “Over the subsequent few months I’ll be transferring my duties and transferring into an advisory position on the firm,” Harrison tweeted.
- This one is the kicker. On September twenty eighth, Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted, “Heads up: rotating just a few FTX wallets at the moment (largely non-circulating); we do that periodically. Could be just a few extra coming, gained’t have any impact.”
If all of that is true, that final SBF tweet will most likely make an look in courtroom.
FTT worth chart for 11/09/2022 on FTX | Supply: FTT/USD on TradingView.com
So, What Did Alameda Do With The Cash?
Consider it or not, the FTT tokens got here straight from the unique ICO good contract. The Coin Metrics analyst “discovered a peculiar transaction that interacted with a contract from the FTT ICO. This 2019 contract *routinely* launched 173 Million FTT from the token’s ICO.” Unusual, however each organizations are joined on the hip. There may’ve been respectable causes.
Then, issues took a weird flip. “Alameda then despatched that *whole* stability to the deal with of the deployer (creator) of the FTT ERC20, which is managed by somebody at FTX.”
WHAT?
4/ The recipient of the $4.19 B USD value of FTT tokens was nobody however Alameda Analysis!
So what? Alameda and FTX have been intrinsically related from day 1 and Alameda clearly participated within the FTX ICO.
However what occurred subsequent was fascinating…
— Lucas Nuzzi (@LucasNuzzi) November 8, 2022
The Coin Metrics Analyst’s Idea
In accordance with Lucas Nuzzi, Alameda Analysis wasn’t resistant to the crypto contagion that plagued the house in Q2. In actual fact, the corporate may’ve blown up with 3AC, Voyager, and Celsius. “It ONLY survived as a result of it was capable of safe funding from FTX utilizing as “collateral” the 172M FTT that was assured to vest 4 months later.” That’s an especially dangerous transfer. It nearly looks as if FTX didn’t have a alternative.
8/ The Alameda bailout possible put a dent on FTXs stability sheet to the purpose the place it was not solvent.
This could have been advantageous if the worth of FTT did not collapse and a financial institution run ensued
For this reason Alameda tried their greatest to guard FTT’s worth.https://t.co/nX1tphjLNR
— Lucas Nuzzi (@LucasNuzzi) November 8, 2022
They didn’t, as a result of “the FTT ICO contract vests routinely. Had FTX let Alameda implode in Might, their collapse would have ensured the following liquidation of all FTT tokens vested in September.” If the state of affairs the Coin Metrics analyst poses is actual, SBF and firm needed to do it. And so they paid a heavy worth for it. “The Alameda bailout possible put a dent on FTXs stability sheet to the purpose the place it was not solvent. This could have been advantageous if the worth of FTT didn’t collapse and a financial institution run ensued.”
This Is The place CZ And Binance Come In
On this state of affairs, CZ And Binance one way or the other came upon in regards to the deal. And the largest cryptocurrency alternate by buying and selling quantity had a heavy FTT bag. “As a part of Binance’s exit from FTX fairness final 12 months, Binance acquired roughly $2.1 billion USD equal in money (BUSD and FTT),” CZ tweeted when he introduced they have been liquidating their place.
What did this heavy FTT bag imply? The Coin Metrics analyst explains, “As massive holders of FTT, they might begin intentionally tanking that market to drive FTX to face a liquidity crunch.”
And so they did.
After which, Binance provided to purchase FTX and relieve them of their issues.
Presumably for pennies on the greenback.
A grasp stroke by CZ and crew, if true.
However keep in mind the Coin Metrics’ analyst warning, “Essential to notice that that is my very own private highly-speculative tackle what occurred based mostly on these on-chain artifacts.” Don’t go round saying that is precisely what occurred, as a result of it won’t be.
Featured Picture by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay | Charts by TradingView
