Lumber to gold ratio breaks down, suggesting a risk-off setting

by Jeremy

Fast Take

  • To date, 2023 has been a superb 12 months for Bitcoin and threat belongings, with Bitcoin up 71%, Nvidia up 92%, and Meta up 68%.
  • The S&P 500 is up 7% whereas the Nasdaq is up 20%
  • Nevertheless, the lumber-to-gold ratio signifies a risk-off setting, and the inventory market has at all times adopted a crash.

Highlighted are the areas the place the lumber-to-gold ratio collapsed, and subsequently, the S&P 500 went down.

  • 1987 Crash
  • 1990 Bear Market
  • 2000 Tech Bubble
  • 2008 Lehman Crash
  • 2011 Summer time Crash
  • 2018 4Q Correction
  • 2020 Covid Crash

As Bitcoin is considerably correlated to the US inventory market this might imply additional headwinds for Bitcoin.

Lumber to Gold Ratio: (Source: Trading View)
Lumber to Gold Ratio: (Supply: Buying and selling View)

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