Rethinking Bitcoin ‘dominance’ at 51% — A deceptive metric?

by Jeremy

Bitcoin’s (BTC) market dominance has historically been seen as a key indicator of its market power. At present, the metric is at a multi-year excessive above 51%

Bitcoin dominance. Supply: Coinmarketcap.com

Nonetheless, a better evaluation means that the idea of “Bitcoin dominance” may not be as informative because it appears, particularly when contemplating the broader dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.

Dominance: A deceptive BTC indicator?

The time period “Bitcoin dominance” refers to BTC’s share of the overall market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies. Whereas on the floor, it appears to mirror Bitcoin’s market power, this metric largely represents the buying and selling exercise between Bitcoin and Ether (ETH), the second-biggest cryptocurrency and the most important altcoin by market cap. 

This dynamic can distort the perceived dominance of Bitcoin, particularly when main shifts happen throughout the ETH/BTC buying and selling pair.

Associated: Ethereum dropping streak vs. Bitcoin hits 15 months — Can ETH value reverse course?

That stated, ETH’s “dominance” or share of the crypto market has remained comparatively secure for the previous few years round 17% — whereas the seemingly inverse relationship between BTC.D and ETH/BTC is clearly seen within the chart under. 

Bitcoin dominance (blue) vs. ETH/BTC (orange). Supply: TradingView

The position of stablecoins and “sidelined” capital

Including complexity to the interpretation of Bitcoin’s dominance is the position of stablecoins like Tether (USDT), the second-biggest “altcoin” by market dominance at round 6.3% immediately.

USDT’s market cap progress is commonly not a direct results of cryptocurrency market exercise however reasonably an inflow of what could be termed “sidelined” capital—funds which might be basically in {dollars} and infrequently ready to enter the market eventually.

Subsequently, the rising market cap of stablecoins like USDT would not essentially mirror an funding in cryptocurrencies, however reasonably the preparedness of traders to interact or hedge their crypto publicity.

In the meantime, the share of every part else that is not Bitcoin, ETH or USDT is just at round 25% and falling from multi-year highs of 35% in 2022. 

Bitcoin “power” or Ethereum market dynamics? 

All through 2023, the narrative of Bitcoin’s dominance has fluctuated. Whereas it appeared to regain dominance early within the 12 months​, this was extra reflective of the ETH/BTC buying and selling dynamics reasonably than an mixture market motion.

Equally, moments when Bitcoin’s dominance appeared to wane, as seen with the Shapella improve impacting ETH costs​​, had been extra indicative of Ethereum’s market actions reasonably than a lower in Bitcoin’s total market “power.”

In the end, the dominance chart is probably not the definitive metric for understanding Bitcoin’s place available in the market. Swayed closely by the ETH/BTC buying and selling pair, and artificial {dollars}, provides a slender view of the market.

It is necessary to contemplate a extra nuanced method to market metrics that encompasses the multifaceted nature of cryptocurrency investments and actions.

This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.