Spot ETH ETFs have 50% likelihood of Might approval: Bitwise, Grayscale, Galaxy execs

Executives at three asset administration companies agreed throughout a Feb. 13 panel dialogue that pending spot Ethereum ETFs have a 50% likelihood of approval this Might.

Matt Hougan, World Head of Analysis for Bitwise Asset Administration, mentioned

“I believe it’s possible we are going to get an ETH ETF fairly quickly. I believe there’s a 50/50 likelihood by Might … “

Steve Kurz, World Head of Galaxy Asset Administration, agreed that there’s a 50% likelihood of a spot Ethereum ETF approval by Might. He additionally predicted a 75% likelihood by the top of 2024.

Dave LaValle, World Head of ETFs at Grayscale, additionally positioned approval odds at 50% by Might. On whether or not Grayscale would sue the U.S. Securities and Alternate Fee (SEC) within the occasion of a rejection, LaValle mentioned: “We’ll have to attend and see the way it performs out. We now have to take a look at the information.”

Grayscale beforehand compelled the SEC to assessment its spot Bitcoin ETF utility via authorized motion. The SEC cited the case as one cause for approving spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

The 50% odds expressed by every government broadly align with different predictions. JP Morgan member Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes there’s a 50% likelihood {that a} spot Ethereum ETF might be permitted in Might. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart — a colleague of Eric Balchunas, who hosted right now’s panel dialogue — has predicted 60% approval odds. Lastly, a Polymarket prediction market means that approval odds by the top of Might are 48%.

Eight companies intend to supply an ETH ETF

Of the three companies listed above, solely Grayscale and Galaxy (in partnership with Invesco) have a spot Ethereum ETF utility pending with regulators.

Different spot Ethereum ETF candidates embrace VanEck, ARK and 21Shares, Hashdex, BlackRock (iShares), Constancy, and Franklin Templeton.

The SEC should approve or reject VanEck’s utility by Might 23. Although it won’t essentially approve the fund, it should probably resolve on different related functions on the identical time.

No spot Ethereum ETF exists on the US market at current. Bitwise at the moment affords two Ethereum futures ETFs, which don’t present publicity to the spot Ethereum market. Grayscale affords an Ethereum Belief and an Ethereum Futures Belief, each of which it intends to transform to ETFs. Many different asset managers additionally supply Ethereum futures ETFs.