Elon Musk just lately revived the “51 % renewables” benchmark, stating that the power backing Bitcoin “can’t be faked.”
The reference is to his earlier promise that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin funds as soon as a minimum of half of mining power got here from clear or low-carbon sources.
Nonetheless, now that the most recent information suggests the community might have crossed that threshold, Tesla nonetheless hasn’t re-enabled BTC checkout. Why?
Has Bitcoin handed the bar but?
In keeping with the Cambridge Centre for Different Finance’s 2025 Digital Mining Business Report, sustainable power now powers roughly 52.4 % of surveyed Bitcoin mining exercise.
Of that, 42.6 % is from renewables (hydro, wind, photo voltaic, and so on.) and 9.8 % from nuclear or different low-carbon sources. In parallel, fossil gas contributions have shifted: pure gasoline now accounts for 38.2 % (up from ~25 % in 2022), and coal has fallen to eight.9 % (down from ~36.6 %).
If Musk’s promise is taken actually, Bitcoin might already exceed the 51 % “sustainable power” bar, a minimum of as measured by Cambridge’s survey of corporations that cowl roughly 48 % of world mining capability.
However that is solely half the story. The wording issues: Musk has referenced renewables (50 %) in earlier feedback, although in later tweets he says “51 % renewable” or “power you possibly can’t pretend.” The Cambridge determine lumps renewables + nuclear; the pure renewables share is decrease (42.6 %).
So, BTC should fall quick relying on the rigidity of Musk’s definition.
Furthermore, the Cambridge strategy is survey-based and covers solely a subset of miners. Off-grid operations, curtailed renewables, regional idiosyncrasies, and temporal mismatches (when renewables produce kind of relative to mining demand) complicate the image.
Alternate fashions, corresponding to these based mostly on grid carbon depth or power tracing, usually yield extra conservative estimates of renewable share. That divergence means even a nominal “go” is topic to debate.
So why hasn’t Tesla flipped the swap?
Even granting that Bitcoin might now qualify beneath Musk’s sustainability check, Tesla has not re-enabled BTC funds. A number of pragmatic and symbolic hurdles stay.
The primary is due diligence. Musk beforehand said that Tesla would solely restart funds as soon as he noticed “cheap (~50 %) clear power utilization … and a development towards rising that quantity.” That wording implies he’s searching for persistence, not a one-off information level.
A single report exhibiting 52 % sustainable power might not fulfill his requirement for a verified and sustained upward development in Bitcoin’s power combine.
One other issue is definition readability. Tesla would wish to resolve whether or not “sustainable” contains nuclear and low-carbon sources or strictly renewables like hydro, wind, and photo voltaic. The Cambridge information combines these classes, however Musk’s earlier phrasing referenced renewables particularly.
With out a universally accepted definition, any resolution to renew BTC funds dangers being accused of greenwashing.
There may be additionally the difficulty of service provider and market threat. Accepting Bitcoin exposes Tesla to cost volatility, complicated accounting therapy, and potential regulatory issues.
Even when the corporate instantly converts BTC receipts to fiat, fluctuations between order placement and settlement introduce monetary uncertainty that is probably not well worth the effort for a automotive producer working on skinny margins.
Model optics add one other layer. Tesla’s picture is constructed on environmental credibility, and even a minor backslide in Bitcoin’s power profile may set off backlash from buyers and ESG-minded clients. The corporate might desire to err on the facet of warning reasonably than face renewed criticism if mining exercise shifts again towards fossil-heavy areas.
Lastly, operational integration can’t be ignored. To deliver Bitcoin funds again on-line, Tesla would wish to rebuild pockets infrastructure, transaction pipelines, and conversion mechanisms. That requires engineering sources and inner approvals: steps which can be removed from trivial for a worldwide producer already balancing a number of product launches and software program initiatives.
Taken collectively, these components recommend that clearing the 51 % renewable threshold just isn’t sufficient by itself. For Musk, the check appears to be as a lot about confidence, consistency, and notion as about uncooked information. Till these align, Tesla’s checkout web page is more likely to keep crypto-free.
What this implies for adoption
From a story standpoint, Musk’s reengagement wields affect. If Bitcoin can credibly cleave to a cleaner power combine and main business counterparts like Tesla start transacting once more, it might reinforce a extra sustainable narrative for crypto.
But Tesla’s continued off-chain standing regardless of claims suggests Musk views the promise as conditional, not automated. The check is as a lot about optics, threat management, and narrative as it’s about easy metrics.
For now, Bitcoin’s claimed “51 %+ sustainable” standing affords a compelling rebuttal to critics, however till checkouts return, it stays extra of a symbolic win than a business one.
