Definition
The MOVE index tracks the motion in U.S. Treasury yield volatility.
Fast Take
- As yields proceed to rise and method 2022 highs, eyes shall be on the Transfer Index to grasp how the bond market features.
- The Transfer Index is at the moment at 121, whereas the 2022 excessive was roughly 158 in September 2022, throughout the identical interval because the Legal responsibility Pushed Funding fiasco within the UK.
- The ten-year treasury fixed maturity minus the 2-year treasury fixed maturity (T10Y2Y) is at the moment inverted at -0.86%, additional than the three earlier recessions; 2020, 2008, and 2000.
- Many buyers take that as an indication {that a} recession is heading, roughly 12-18 months after the primary inversion.
- Whereas in accordance with BofA World Analysis, the fed would possibly increase coverage charges to six%.
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